US officials have announced that a US-led coalition fighting ISIL in Iraq will wind down by the end of 2025, but the future of US troops in the country remains uncertain. The move is described as a “transition” rather than a full withdrawal, with officials hinting at a prolonged military presence.
The plan involves two phases, with the first phase ending in September 2025 and the second phase expected to continue at least through 2026 to support anti-ISIS efforts in Syria. The transition will shift US-Iraq defense ties to an expanded bilateral security relationship, but whether this will involve a full withdrawal of US troops is unclear.
The US initially invaded Iraq in 2003 as part of the global “war on terror”, withdrew most troops by 2011, and redeployed forces in 2014 as ISIL gained ground. While ISIL has lost territory in recent years, US troops remained in Iraq in an advisory role after ending their combat mission in 2021.
Discussions to further wind down troops began in January, with the continued presence of US troops in Iraq facing opposition from influential segments of the government. Bases hosting US soldiers have been targeted by Iran-aligned militias, with attacks increasing during the recent conflict in Gaza but reducing in frequency since then. The future of US military presence in Iraq remains uncertain as officials navigate this “transition” period.
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