Ukraine has accused Russia of launching an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) during an overnight attack, marking the first use of such a weapon in the conflict. However, a Western official disputed this claim, stating it was a ballistic missile but not an ICBM, targeting the city of Dnipro in eastern Ukraine. The impact of the missile is still being assessed.
This alleged escalation in the conflict follows Russia’s revision of its nuclear doctrine, allowing for a nuclear strike if attacked by a non-nuclear country supported by a nuclear state. Analysts caution against assuming automatic danger from the use of an ICBM, noting the low accuracy and high cost associated with these missiles.
Despite the West relaxing restrictions on Ukraine’s use of long-range weapons, analysts suggest that this may not have a significant impact on the battlefield situation, as Russian forces have gained momentum and territorial gains in recent months. The risk of Russian nuclear use is considered lower at this stage in the conflict, as political and battlefield developments favor Russia.
The deployment of nuclear weapons would not only have unclear military benefits, but also diplomatic drawbacks, potentially alienating other non-Western countries and complicating relationships with other global powers. Ultimately, the use of nuclear weapons is seen as unlikely due to the current state of the conflict and the potential consequences on a diplomatic level.
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